Agenda

08:30

Registration and Welcome Coffee

08:50

Chairperson's Opening Address

Speakers
Mohan Sharma,
Consultant, Former Chief Executive Officer
Catalytics

09:00

Developing a catastrophe data and analytics platform for greater understanding of catastrophe risk

  • NatCatDAX: Key milestones, priorities and challenges 
  • Strengthening public-private-people partnerships to mitigate the impact of high catastrophe risks
  • Going forward – Strategies to plug data and modelling gaps
Speakers
Professor Pan Tso-Chien,
Founding Executive Director
Institute of Catastrophe Risk Management, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

09:20

Financial engines advancement in CAT modelling: Differences and transformations

  • Model approach, potential for errors, lines of business most effected, and impact to results
  • Impact to models when integrated onto Oasis platform
Speakers
Nigel Winspear,
Asia Pacific Regional Head, Catastrophe Management
SCOR Re

09:50

CAT Model Disruption: Disrupting the status quo with bespoke CAT models 

  • Why and how insurers are customising their own catastrophe models on the new open loss modelling platforms?
  • Running multiple models versus one open model representing your view of risk—the pros and cons
  • Additional risk metrics available on the new platforms for managing exposure concentrations and “informal” risk tolerances—Characteristic Events (CEs)
Speakers
John McAneney,
Managing Director
Risk Frontiers

10:20

Morning Break

10:50

Evaluating differences in probabilistic modelling amongst global vendors and platforms 

  • RMS v AIR v Oasis V Impact Forecasting v CoreLogic
  • Approaches that model vendors utilise (Beta etc), and pros and cons, including for different lines of business.
  • Changes in approach due to advancements in technology (for e.g. increasing number of sims per model) and impact this will have
  • Adopting new techniques and scientific applications in the construction and use of catastrophe models 
Speakers
Richard Sanders,
Executive Director
Willis Re Singapore
MODEL COMPARISON

11:20

PART ONE: Japan earthquake model comparison

  • Introduction and overview of the model comparison
Speakers
Mohan Sharma,
Consultant, Former Chief Executive Officer
Catalytics

12:00

PART TWO: Results and Output

  • CAT model results from the comparison project
  • Examining individual model findings from single data set
Speakers
Mohan Sharma,
Consultant, Former Chief Executive Officer
Catalytics

12:50

Networking Lunch

13:50

PART THREE: Panel Discussion: Model comparison and analysis

  • Model validation and testing: is there enough consistency and transparency?
  • Comparing outcomes in various scenarios and its impact on risk management
  • Interpreting modelled losses and factors driving output discrepancies
  • What to do when models disagree and what this means for risk-based decision making
  • Q&A
Moderator: Mohan Sharma, Consultant | Former Chief Executive Officer, Catalytics
Speakers
Ben Reynolds,
Senior Manager
RMS
Kazuya Fujimura,
Vice President and Managing Director
AIR Worldwide
Tom Larsen,
Hazard Product Architect
CoreLogic

15:20

Afternoon Tea

15:50

PART FOUR: Model comparison follow up analysis: The End-User Perspective

  • From an end user’s perspective: Scenario analysis and model testing
  • Comparing outcomes in various scenarios and its impact on risk management
  • Interpreting modelled losses and factors driving output discrepancies
  • What to do when models disagree and what this means for risk-based decision making
  • Q&A
Moderator: Mohan Sharma, Consultant | Former Chief Executive Officer, Catalytics
Speakers
Iain Reynolds,
Head of Analytics
Peak Re
Kevin Bermingham,
Catastrophe Modelling Manager, Asia Pacific
QBE Insurance
Nigel Winspear,
Asia Pacific Regional Head, Catastrophe Management
SCOR Re

16:50

Chairman’s Summary and Conclusions

17:00

Networking Drinks

08:30

Registration and Welcome Coffee

08:50

Chairperson's Opening Address

Speakers
Scott Ryrie,
Commercial Director, Asia Pacific
A.M. Best

09:00

CAT Risk Management in Asia: A peek of things to come for insurance for the masses

  • Addressing the problem of affordability and penetration of risk transfer options to the society in Asia
  • New generation of CAT models and major advances in technology that will power this revolution of change
  • Concerns and reasons for why this new generation of technologies and tools will not work, or how these will result in havoc for the industry or for the society
Speakers
Professor Haresh Shah,
Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus | Founding Chairman | Founder and Senior Advisor
Stanford University | ICRM International Advisory Board, Nanyang Technological University, SG | RMS

09:30

Market Panel: Adopting multiple modelling platforms within an organisation

  • Do re/insurers want more than one model?
  • Pros and cons, and what has hindered the wide take up of ‘independent’ models
  • How much can an organisation take on internally? Is outsourcing the answer?
  • Where is this all heading? What will be done in the short and long term?
  • What difference will it make to underwriting/cat modelling, and the market as a whole?
Moderator: Iain Reynolds, Head of Analytics, Peak Re
Speakers
Himanshu Adhikari,
Assistant Regional Manager, Catastrophe Management
AIG
Kevin Bermingham,
Catastrophe Modelling Manager, Asia Pacific
QBE Insurance
Nigel Winspear,
Asia Pacific Regional Head, Catastrophe Management
SCOR Re
Richard Sanders,
Executive Director
Willis Re Singapore
Roopa Malhotra,
Regional Catastrophe Manager, Asia Pacific
Chubb Insurance

10:20

Morning Break

10:50

The importance of modelling sub-perils in Southeast Asia 

  • Recent earthquakes and typhoons – Tohoku (2011) and Haiyan (2013) – and their major contribution to losses that can be associated with sub-perils
  • Key sub-perils (e.g. tsunami, liquefaction, precipitation-induced flooding, and storm surge) and their impact on the Southeast Asia region
Speakers
Arash Nasseri,
Manager, Earthquake Engineering
AIR Worldwide

11:20

The New Wave: Innovations for modelling CAT flood risk in Asia

  • Flood risk modelling with highly aggregated exposure data 
  • Developing an Insurance Loss Database (ILD) for Malaysia 
  • Assessment of worst case scenarios – case study of a Pearl River delta PML 
Speakers
Iain Willis,
Managing Director
JBA Risk Management

11:50

Networking Lunch

INDONESIA QUAKE MODELLING

12:50

Panel Discussion: Redesigning earthquake risk modelling approaches and techniques

  • Do current models reflect what we have learned from the 2004 Indonesia earthquake?
  • Developing strategies to build a culture of resilience 
  • Analysing the evolving techniques for non-modelled perils  
  • Challenges and opportunities in reinsurance: Impact on renewals, pricing etc.
Moderator: Iain Reynolds, Head of Analytics, Peak Re
Speakers
Adityam Krovvidi,
Senior Director and Head of Impact Forecasting Asia Pacific
AON Benfield
Ben Reynolds,
Senior Manager
RMS
Milan Simic,
EVP & Managing Director of International Operations
AIR Worldwide
CAT MODELLING, ILS & INSURANCE PRICING

13:50

ILS Panel: Market update and emerging trends in ILS & CAT Bonds

  • The rise of ILS & CAT Bonds in a changing environment e.g. major market moving events, factors contributing to the ongoing market growth
  • Key drivers impacting issuance, allocation, the investor landscape and capital flows into cat bonds, collateralised re and sidecars
  • Assessing how the ILS market has performed in 2015 so far: From the market shrink in 2015 H1 to $25bn bond on-risk, notable developments in non-cat bond fields
  • Continuing and emerging trends: trigger and coverage type, capital and new entrants –Where will 2016 bring us?
Speakers
Graham Jones,
Senior Vice President, Strategic Advisory
Guy Carpenter
Ernest Eng,
Head of Analytics & Strategic Advisory Asia
JLT Re
Scott Ryrie,
Commercial Director, Asia Pacific
A.M. Best

14:30

Afternoon Tea

15:00

Re/insurers’ Panel: Changing pricing approaches with advancement in CAT models

  • Will Next Gen CAT modelling create changes of approach to underwriting, actuarial functions, capital requirements, and reinsurance?
  • From the underwriting perspective: Balancing cost, time, and trust in current and future CAT modelling approaches – will you ever have all the information you require in one place?
  • Will we be any closer to the differences in the real world v model world
  • The “Winner’s Curse” in re/insurance: Overcoming the non-modelled peril of competition
  • Future changes in the underwriting, broking and CAT modelling functions
  • Latest innovations and limitations of the current model paradigm: How will re/insurers cope with cyber risk?
Moderator: Iain Willis, Managing Director, JBA Risk Management
Speakers
Amitabha Ray,
Head, Property Treaty Underwriting, Property & Specialty Underwriting, Southeast Asia, India, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan
Swiss Re
Jason Smith,
Chief Risk Officer, Asia
IAG
Stefan Förster,
Head of Property Treaty Underwriting, Singapore
Munich Re
Tony Gu,
Vice President, Actuarial
AXIS Re

15:40

Brokers’ Panel: CAT Model Best Practices  

  • Pros and cons of models in Region
  • Who is/are the market leader(s) and why?
  • Lessons learnt from recent events
  • Application of CAT models when addressing data quality issues
  • Comparing various methodologies used to model risk
  • Applying historical losses to aid model adjustment
Moderator: Nigel Winspear, Asia Pacific Regional Head, Catastrophe Management, SCOR Re
Speakers
Brad Weir,
Head of Analytics, Asia Pacific
Aon Benfield
Richard Sanders,
Executive Director
Willis Re Singapore
Amit Shah,
Vice President
Guy Carpenter
Apoorv Dabral,
Head of Catastrophe Modelling, APAC
JLT Re

16:40

Chairperson’s Closing Address

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